Gaethje vs. Johnson

This is the official discussion thread for Gaethje vs. Johnson. Let's see what you've got.

Not an easy debut for Gaethje.

Have to go with Johnson. Think Gaethje's pressure will work against him, and that he'll have problems with Michael's speed and boxing.

Great fight.

Xz

Gaethje may be one of the biggest prospect right now with Ngannou but first UFC fight againts Michael Johnson? Thats not a gift!

I think MJ will get picked apart here.

MJ is probably going to lose but it will not by all means be an easy fight for Justin he wont be able to finish MJ with strikes so i see him being more wrestling heavy in this fight but we will also see some exchanges on the feet. Will be a tough standup for justin trying to handle the well known speed of MJ but i see him leg kicking MJ alot. But also Justin gets hit alot and maybe MJ can capitalize on that and keep coming forward taking justins untechnical bombs and he can out volume Justin for the decision win

* Edited at 05.14.2017, 7:40 PM ET *

Gaethje's wild, open and doesn't mind getting hit. MJ's fast, hits hard and has the footwork and ring craft to deal with a wild man. 


Don't see how Gaethje wins this to be honest.

You don't see anyway at all?

You mean barring the usual "puncher's chance", "he's a very good fighter so of course he CAN win" type of thing? Nope. 

From a pure stylistic analysis point of view, I think MJ takes this pretty comfortably.

Also, I didn't say he can't or won't win. I said that I don't see it. I'm no expert.

Exactly, the hand speed and footwork of MJ will give Gaethje fits. The fact that most of Justin's defence revolves around covering up makes me think that he won't do very well against Johnson on the feet.

@yoss

I agree, stylistically this favor MJ.  I think deciding factor will be can Justin chin withstand MJ power and can Justin turn this into a brawl.  If so, I think Justin wins.  Otherwise I see a finish for MJ or a lop sided decision 

@Franklin, 

I agree totally, which is why I don't see it. 

MJ has stayed disciplined in so many fights, he doesn't get drawn into brawls easily. Watch his fights against Tibau, Barboza, Guilard, even Benny Dariush (he may have lost, but many feel he won and the point is how he maintained discipline throughout the 15 mins). That's too many fights where he's kept to a gameplan religiously for me to believe he's suddenly going to lose his **** and get into a phone booth (which is more or less the only place I see Gaethje winning because MJ's speed, footwork, distance and athleticism also make him pretty hard to take down).

Again, Gaethje's got ways to win and he's good enough a fighter for him to win outside the areas I think he can win in too, but from a pure stylistic analysis POV, MJ's got all the advantages in my opinion.



EDIT:: Another important aspect of this fight is that Gaethje's style is very taxing on the gas tank while as MJ's is very economic and I don't think I've ever seen him gassed. I wouldn't be surprised if from mid-fight onward he'll just be hanging there for MJ to pick him apart until he crumbles (by the way that's also where he may get his greatest opportunity, because the only place MJ will break away from the gameplan would be if he smells a finish and that's where he can get caught because Gaethje's still dangerous when he's tired).

* Edited at 05.16.2017, 2:43 AM ET *

Saying you dont see it means you cannot see any possible way. 

Nope. It just means I don't see it happening. When you think about a fight you envision probable ways of how it'll go down (at least I do) and what I see it MJ sticking and moving and eventually taking over.

As I wrote before, I can see ways for Gaethje to win, I just don't see it happening barring MJ getting tagged which is more or less true about every fight so isn't really worth mentioning when you're giving your opinion on a fight.

Give us those big underdog lines on MJ !!!

Surprised that Tapology has Gaethje as the favorite, pretty heavily, picks-wise. I think this is a tough debut, and don't forsee many ways that Gaethje wins. He's got the obvious power, of course. But MJ isn't a slouch. He's got the skill, speed, precision, and overall boxing technique to absolutely deal with Gaethje's offense. 

It's by no means an easy fight. For either, really. 

MJ also has really good ring awareness in terms of movement and not staying stationary in front of a hard-hitting target. Big Gaethje fan. The man personifies violence. He is always exciting, and I will never not watch one of his fights. I just have a hard time seeing him win this one. He's far too hittable, and against a guy like MJ, that may finally bite him in the ass. 

I stand by me saying that this is a pretty tough - borderline bad - match-up for Gaethje. But ****. I hope he wins this one. MJ taking that trash-talk to levels that it doesn't need to be brought to. Hope Justin destroys.

https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/880545946999730177

I'm surprised so many people are picking Gaethje. Gaethje hasn't been fighting UFC level competition throughout his career, and he's very hittable as well. Johnson is the most underrated striker in the Lightweight division, in my opinion. He's beaten Barboza and Ferguson on the feet, and the 2 fights he's lost out of his last 6 (even though I'm a fan of Dariush, I have to admit Johnson obviously won that fight) don't really give the impression that Gaethje would be able to achieve similar success. Against Nate, he won the first round, but got outboxed in the 2nd and 3rd rounds because he got emotional and abandoned his gameplan. Against Khabib, he got dominated on the ground. He showed off an iron chin in that fight, Khabib held him down and beat him up for most of the fight, but he still survived until he got tapped. He's never been knocked out in his professional career, as well. I don't think Gaethje is the most technical striker Johnson has faced in his career or that he has the power to knock him out. I think Johnson will beat him soundly for a few rounds and then put him out. 

I like johnsons chances here, I seen him open as a huge dog on betsafe i think odds were +175, i think this is a close fight so pickign johnson would provide a huge ROI.... hes the faster more technical boxer, versus the brawler. I do think gathje will utilize his kicks to help limit the movements of johnson but i think johnson has faced the better competition and has the faster hands and more technical boxing if he decides to pressure forward he is in risk of getting ko'ed by johnson if it goes late im hoping johnson can win 3 of the 5 rounds based on skill and effective striking the pick is johnson here but this is not an easy fight for either fighter.