UFC 134: Underdog betting

Am I the only one that thinks there's value in some of the underdogs on this card? I've only made quick picks and will look at the card in more detail later, but look at these underdogs:

Okami at +450: I'm gonna pick Anderson Silva, but does no one see the possibility of Okami controlling Anderson to a decision? I think Okami is heavily undervalued at +450.

Forrest @ +210: I'm gonna pick Forrest, so obviously I think these odds are very good. I think that generally people place too much stock in fighters' excuses for past losses.

Pearson @ +280: Again, I'm probably gonna pick Barboza, but how can people be this sure? +280 is a pretty heavy underdog. I don't think Pearson winning a stand-up fight is unrealistic.

Dan Miller @ +260: Dan Miller is too good an all-round fighter to be this heavy an underdog. He's only lost to top UFC fighters, and most of them were close fights. Also, he's never been finished. I'm still undecided on who I'm picking, but I see it as being very even, so +260 is good.

With a Singles bet with those four selections, you would roughly break even by getting just one of them right. If you can get two right, that's guaranteed profit of around 60%, and possibly as much as 110%, depending on which two you get. With three right, you'd see roughly nearly 200% profit. With all four right, you'd see nearly 300% profit.

With a Doubles bet, you'd obviously need to get at least two right to get any money back. But with just two right, you could see between 70-200% profit depending on the combination. With three right, that's between 450-600% profit. With all four right, that's around 1300% profit.

A Trebles bet or a parlay with those four selections is too ambitious. 3/4 right with a trebles bet would generate around 1200% profit. 4/4 brings in 5000% profit. A winning parlay bet would see around 18000% profit.

Elsewhere on the card, Nedkov and Fisher are decent underdog picks. I heavily favor Brendan Schaub to win, and -225 is okay but not great. After all, I think he was losing to Cro Cop before the KO. But I do expect to see him win by KO in this fight.

Like I said I haven't really looked at the card yet, but Luis Ramos and Felipe Arantes are both heavy underdogs. Is this justified? I don't know much about any of these four fighters. Erick Silva and Yuri Alcantara both have good records, and I think Erick Silva was in Bloody Elbow's scouting report, so they both look good on paper, but should the lines be this lopsided?

I now have Pearson and Big Nog as underdogs.. Just switched to Pearson.

@gio. you make some good points but if you placed 100 dollars on your first four and only won 1 of them it would end up like this.
dan miller 260 dollars on 100 wager - 300 = 40 dollars total loss
forrest griffin 210 dollars if he wins on 100 dollars wagered minus the other 300 hundred is 90 dollar loss
pearson would be 280 gain - 300 dollars = 20 loss
okami would be 450 dollar gain - 300 dollars on the four fighters you took so you would make 150 dollars profit
i think thats right. any two that won would be at least 270 profit. i like finding competitive underdogs myself.

* Edited at 08.27.2011, 9:20 AM ET *

@wolfman, yeah like I said, "roughly break even". I coulda been more specific and said that you'd make a small loss if only one of them were to win, unless it's Okami, in which case you'd make a profit. Anyway, with these bets, the intention is to get 2/4 right. Betting Singles rather than Doubles would insure that there's only a small loss if only one winner comes in, which is extremely possible. It's of course possible that none of these underdogs come in, but I don't think that's likely. I think 1 correct and 2 correct are both more likely than 0 correct. I may have to eat those words after tonight. I notice that you've picked the favorites in all four of these fights. I'll make my proper picks shortly before the event.

The odds I listed are actually different from the ones I referred to when listing the different bet types, because I just looked up those odds quickly on bestfightodds.com, while my calculations were done using odds from a UK site bet365.com. Minor differences though.

i do have big nog, ramos and jabouin winning. i consider yves the best of the competitive underdogs. i'm taking mino b/c of what i saw at the weigh ins. i guy who is super proud to fight for his country and maybe just enough adrenaline to trip up schaub and sub him quickly. so that is three out of 12 and i don't put money on any silva fights except once. he is just too much of a favorite. i was at a UFC event where the main event was andy vs james irvin. irvin got to +650 moneyline at the palms hotel in vegas. i said to myself, one time i'll take against silva. i was thinking irvin could land a bomb and end it quickly. this is when irvin had won a few times in the octagon. silva destroyed him in 70 seconds. irvin threw a leg kick and andy caught it mid air and landed 6 or 7 punches to the face of irvin and opened up a nasty cut and the ref stepped in. it was quick alright. i stay away from silva fights. lol.

* Edited at 08.27.2011, 9:44 AM ET *

I think there is value on the Okami line... +450 is a little extreme.

Forrest vs Shogun I'm just not sure what to think about this fight.

the forrest line is great, i put money down on him and put a parlay down on forrest, Silva and Schaub

2 out of 3 of my underdogs won. i'm quite happy. especially big nogs win.

"It's of course possible that none of these underdogs come in, but I don't think that's likely. I think 1 correct and 2 correct are both more likely than 0 correct. I may have to eat those words after tonight. I notice that you've picked the favorites in all four of these fights. I'll make my proper picks shortly before the event."

Bad night of predictions for me. I'm happy with the Shogun and Nog wins though, since I like the winners, and I was never close to picking either of them. I was always gonna pick Forrest and Schaub, so it doesn't annoy me so much. Can't say the same about the other four I got wrong though. At least I didn't make any bets^^.

yea I put schab ,silva, and cane to win so of course lost which sux but lesson learned silva odds were terrible so its like i didnt win anything and lost all three

wlfman you need to help me win some money! lol my tapology predicts are decent but my bet predicts suck i keep trying to play it safe and screw myself