Been a little while since I did one. Hope you enjoy it.

Chris “The All American” Weidman vs Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida

 

 

At UFC 175 on 4th on July weekend we will get treated to an excellent match up between two of the best middle weight fighters in the world. Chris Weidman will defend his title against Lyoto Machida. We can talk on and on about how Machida is the long time training partner and friend of former division king pin Anderson Silva. We could tie that in with the way that Weidman defeated Silva in back to back fights, both largely contested on the feet. But the Silva back story is just a ploy by marketing to make this seem like some type of revenge match and honestly I doubt that is on either fighters minds. Lets look at some advantages and disadvantages of each fighter.

Weidman vs Southpaws – Striking

The first thing you will notice in this match up is that Weidman is an orthodox fighter and Machida is a southpaw. It is worth noting that in 3 of his last 4 fights Weidman has faced a southpaw. He seems to be very comfortable with facing them and is improving on his flaws. If you read my breakdown of Weidman vs Silva 2 you might remember me talking about Weidman avoiding the straight left by ducking to his right. This opens up the left high kick. He also tends to avoid the left high kick by moving straight back with his head raised. This opens up the straight left. Mirko CroCop used this to great success during his career.

In this picture you can see four occasions in just 1 minute of action where Weidman does this. He has improve on this flaw over time though. During his fights with Silva he didn’t commit the mistake as much, but Silva is also a much different striker than most fighters. Lyoto Machida absolutely loves this combo. Of all the active fighters Machida and Belfort try to exploit this the most.

If you go back and watch the Machida vs Munoz fight you will see Machida set up his finish. He throws a couple of his patented lunging left straights, then he throws several left low kicks. That is not enough though he also utilizes feints very well. Machida works to get the timing of his opponent and looks for openings to exploit. If he doesn’t find an opening he creates it with feints. When he finds an opening he likes, he pounces on it.

Look for Weidman to try and close the distance and use tight boxing combos to score points on Machida, while the Dragon tries to keep the distance and use his karate style to outscore Weidman.

Weidman vs Southpaws – Grappling

There is a big difference in wrestling when fighters are in opposing stances. The distance between a southpaw and orthodox fighter is much greater than between two men with the same stance.

Here are two stills of Anderson Silva. On the left he is fighting Chael Sonnen and both fighters have the same stance (southpaw). On the right he is fighting Nate Marquardt and both have different stances. Notice how much closer Chael is than Nate. Machida is already a tough person to track down and a tougher person to take down. This distance will make take downs very difficult for Weidman.

The All American wrestler has the skills to take Machida down but I am not convinced he will want to expend the energy to track Machida down and attempt take downs. I think a more likely scenario is a striking match and if Weidman is presented a take down he will go for it. The same can be said for Machida though, he likes to mix in trips when given the opportunity.

Machida – Wrestling Defense

Other than distance, movement and an obvious sumo base what does Machida do to stop wrestlers? The low calf kick. You have probably seen this 100 times and might not have even noticed. A fighter walks in toward Machida and he delivers a low kick right above their ankle. This presents the attacker with a double edge sword of a decision. Either plant the foot and eat the kick which stops them in their tracks or lift their leg to check the kick and get knocked off balance.

In still 1 Randy Couture plants and eats the kick which as predicted stops his movement. In still 2 Rashad evans decides to check the kick and is knocked off balance. Both fighters ate a straight left hand for their efforts. Machida will without a doubt try to utilize this against Weidman in their upcoming fight.

Prediction

Lyoto holds a distinct advantage in the striking game and if either fighter is going to win by KO I give him the edge. Weidman is an underrated striker. Shocking that I say that about a guy with two KO wins over Anderson Silva, but it is true. He will need to be at his absolute best to beat Machida though. The Dragon is just on another level in the striking game, is much more accomplished and has a more refined arsenal. The problem for Lyoto is that he does not blow many fighters out of the water (his 8 KO wins no included of course). A few flurries or a late take down by Weidman and he can easily steal a round that Machida “should” have won. If this fight goes to a decision it will be very close.

Look for Weidman to close the distance, while Machida tries to keep away. Keep a close eye on the lead foot of each fighter. That will be key. I expect the experience of Machida to be the key here and he will be able to keep his lead foot outside Weidmans which opens up his striking.

Here you see Vitor Belfort gaining the outside foot position before he lands a head kick on Akiyama.

This is such a tough fight to call. I have been a fan of Machida since the first time I watched him fight. I am a born and raised Long Islander and always root for Serra/Longo guys. I think it will be a very close fight but say Machida wins via UD 48-47.

Also.a.shout to guys like Hug....who put Kyokushin on the map like no other, Schilt with Ashihara Kaikan, Gunnar with Goju Ryu. MMA.commentating is dreadful inaccurate and dumbed down next to boxing.commentating it makes my head hurt. Rogan is a color.commentator, it just happens.so is Goldie.

Also guys like Adlan Amagov, Anthony Pettis and Jon Jones almost entirely created.their own styles. The way.I like to put Karate into perspective is like this...In the WCL Raymond Daniels runs circles around Joey.Vallatelini due to open space, in a ring it was only a matter of time.a.bigger,.more.explosive power striker cut him off and beat him down though.

Pedigrees in MMA don't mean as much as people think either. I'm not sure there's ever been an MMA.commentator who says such technical, intelligent things like Boxing has. In due time. 

"It seems like anytime someone throws a knee or a kick in the UFC now, Rogan is commenting on their great MT. "

****, according to Rogan, if you attempt to grab a guy's head, you're automatically a dangerous MT practitioner!!

One thing that people don't mention often, so I figured I would.

Intangibles such as "chin", "heart", "strength" and "speed" play a larger hole in MMA than most people are willing to admit, and Weidman is slow. He is no Tim Sylvia, but when compared to the current top middleweights, it is undeniable that he loses in the speed department. Of course, that doesn't mean that he will lose to Machida, and he has a lot going for him in the intangibles department (he is a very strong dude with a reach that is hilariousy big, for instance), but it does have some implications.

First of all, his striking must be very tight and disciplined for the whole duration of a fight. Guys known for their extreme speed (such as Demetrious Johnson and Vitor Belfort) frequently get away with stuff that would leave most people open to counters. If anyone other than Belfort attempted a flurry against Anderson Silva like his first (and only) during UFC 126 there is a strong possibility that person would be sleeping until today. Belfort is far from a polished boxer and his striking has weaknesses, but he is so fast that exploiting those weaknesses is basically impossible when he is attacking. Weidman doesn't have that going for him, especially against a guy known for his speed and his precise counters, so I wouldn't be surprised in seeing him tentative in the striking battle.

I am aware, of course, that Weidman beat Anderson Silva twice, and Anderson was also a fast counterstriker. However, Anderson is not as fast today as he once was, and even if he miraculously retained 100% of his speed at 39 years old, he was constantly threatened with the takedown and unable to completely display his striking prowess. Weidman is also stronger than Anderson, and as underrated as The Spider's sprawls and takedown defense in general are, they are no match for a wrestler with Weidman's pedigree. Machida, however, seems to be one of the strongest middleweights around, and his skills can nullify Weidman's wrestling if he isn't caught off-guard. And lets be honest: do you see, in Weidman, the kind of flashy double-leg that can catch Machida off-balance and firmly plant his back on the ground? I certainly don't. Hell, I still think to this day that his double-leg attempt against Silva would have failed had Silva not sprawled so awkwardly, and that was a DEEP shot.

I am picking Machida here. It is far from a confident pick - The Chris is a GREAT fighter with good fight IQ and who has evolved at a Jon Jones' striking rate, and he will have a very big reach advantage against Lyoto - but I think people are forgetting that Machida is a great fighter as well.

* Edited at 06.21.2014, 3:16 AM ET *

Just want to thank everyone for their posts. Excellent conversation going on.


"Weidman is slow"


I agree he is a pretty slow striker and I like the comparison to Vitor Belfort. It is funny they are the only two that were not caught by Andersons counters and they are opposites lol. What makes Weidman such a good striker is he is disciplined and accurate. He makes sure he is in good position before striker so he does not expose himself, then he throws good accurate strikes. I think he will have a tough time tracking down Machida, but think he could steal some rounds. Should be a close fight IMO.



As for the Muay Thai talk you guys are 100% right. There have been way more successful MMA fighters with boxing styles than with MT styles. The UFC doesn't like this so they ignore it. I think the reason boxing is better than MT is because of the footwork/positioning.

WHAT IS THIS?!

HOW THE **** HAVE YOU PEOPLE GOTTEN AWAY WITH THIS FOR SO LONG?!

HOW DARE YOU PEOPLE DISRESPECT THE GREATNESS THAT IS THE MARTIAL ART OF MUAY THAI, THE STRONGEST OF ALL MARTIAL ARTS?!

Shame on all of you. SHAME.

I will give you this though, Muay Thai does not focus nearly enough on footwork as it should. But despite this, in my eyes nothing is more beautiful to watch than someone destroying their opponent using a double collar tie, that **** is just poetry in motion.

I don't see Machida winning this one. It's an unpopular opinion but I didn't think the Davis decision was unjustified. The first two rounds were close in the striking, at least numbers-wise, with Machida being too tentative, and Davis landed two takedowns and then attacked from the ground at the end of each round. 

Weidman's a better striker than Davis, and has enough strength, reach, and technical skill that Machida is unlikely to be able to do much damage to him in the striking. He also might stand a chance of taking Machida down. I'm more worried that this fight will be boring than anything. 

The Machida/Davis fight was the best thing that could happen for us fans. It's the fight that drove him to 185. Shame it didn't happen earlier in his career. Hopefully his pee has fountain of youth-like qualities because even though he's still looking physically prime, you hit an age where it goes fast and Machida is close, IMO. Especially for a dude who's very dependent on being the faster one in the cage.

You could argue that MT is overrated for distance fighting, but you guys are overlooking the fact that MT is literally the only style that teaches effective clinch striking. Every other striking art forces a clean break after a clinch which is simply unrealistic. The clinch in MMA is a very dominant position, since its so hard to stop it. That's why there is so much clinching against the cage, because one fighter can't stop the other from clinching. The unrealistic part in true MT is the lack of movement, but that's because of the lack of takedowns. I would argue that MMA is much more similar to MT + grappling than kickboxing or boxing + grappling.

If Machida wins, its gonna be by some fluke KO....champions dont lose decisions in the UFC

All of these were flukes. No strategy involved whatsoever.. Machida is masterful as ****.

Not once did i say he has fluke KOs........you are the reason aliens dont wanna visit us Mike

Aliens visit me all the time, though.

@Mike It could be that you are experiencing sleep paralysis.

@PillaryChoke

I agree 100% that Weidman is a way better striker than Davis, the issue for him is that he is a much different striker. Davis is very explosive and strikes from the outside. Weidman almost exclusively strikes from the inside. It is the very reason he was able to beat Silva (no reaching/over extending), but IMO is the reason Machida is a bad match up for him. He has to try and track Machida down to strike and I think that will be tough.

As I said though I think the striking will, at least appear to, be very close. Interesting point about Champions and losing decisions (although BJ Penn does not agree lol). Its another reason I think this fight will be scored very close. 

Could go either way IMO. I just prefer to make a prediction after my breakdowns, unlike many writers out there, and so I chose Machida by close 3-2 decision.

@SlamDistraction


MT certainly has it's uses and when used effectively is very effective. A few things about it weaken it in MMA though. The lack of footwork and the stance (straight up with feet close together). 


You are right about clinch work though and guys with a good clinch can brutalize people (a point I am making in my upcoming Cain vs Werdum breakdown). I think you can get clinch work in other forms though. Greco Roman wrestling is great for clinch work, Couture made a career of it. He combined that with boxing and had a great clinch. Cain and Cormier are doing the same thing in todays MMA.


Reading my other post I probably was not clear in my thought. You can be successful with many different styles. Silva and Overeem have brutal clinches with knees, Cain and Couture use dirty boxing/wrestling with great success and heck even Machida does a good job in the clinch with his Judo footsweeps and Sumo base (odd combo lol). IMO most of the MMA world talks of MT as the only option and that is something I don't agree with. 

* Edited at 06.25.2014, 11:53 AM ET *

I think Weidman is just too strong. I see him moving forward in this fight and making Machida fight him which will result in a knockout.

I agree that Machida is a bad macthup for Wiedman. i think Machida can keep this striking, and will out strike Wiedman. However Wiedman has just stupid power in the clinch, so this is  a super dangerous fight for Machida. I think Stylistically Machida should win this, but I cannot count weidman out, just one punch in the clinch can end this for him. I think Machida needs to stay at range and avoid the clinch at all cost.

* Edited at 06.25.2014, 2:53 PM ET *

@FantastyMMA

Yeah I get you on that. I feel the same way about folkstyle wrestling. People really overemphasize it for MMA and I think Greco is actually a better style for MMA as you intimated in your post. Although ironically, I think the clinch itself as an art is very underdeveloped in MMA at this point. So many guys will stand and beat people up in the clinch against the cage but they rarely set up good power strikes with the control they have. It's all volume striking and primarily punches. I'm excited to see how that in particular develops in the next decade, synthesizing skills like striking with the control a lot of wrestlers have in the clinch, maybe even combined with the skills we see in Judo and Sambo.

I like both fighters this is the fight I wanted after chris beat Anderson the 1st time . don't get me wrong was looking forward  to Belfort fighting him two but im a lyoto fan so I was wanting him at middleweight for awhile .
also think rashad evans would be better at middleweight
if chris wins I don't know who would be a good match up for him maybe Belfort or stipe miocic

@SlamDistraction

I think that is kind of the one piece of the puzzle missing from martial arts. When I trained Judo we did a lot of unconventional work with our backs against a wall in a clinch. It was awesome. I think in the future you could have an entire art form based on the clinch develop. A sort of mix of MT, Judo, Greco and Sambo. Right now it seems to be dirty punches for volume, knee the thigh, stomp the foot, an elbow some times. Nothing seems to be really developed yet. Lets hope that part of the game develops.


@Bord3rlin3

If Chris beats Machida and Belfort he will enter GOAT MW talk really fast. Belfort would be a tough test for him IMO. Not sure about Stipe Miocic though. Stipe is a fighter I am very fond of, but he is a HW. I doubt they ever fight, although they are similar. Future for MW champ contenders looks like Belfort, then Jacare/Mousasi and then Rockhold. Or something along those lines. This is the best MW division the sport has ever seen.