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Chris Weidman vs Lyoto Machida breakdown.

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FantasyMMA
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06.19.2014 | 5:29 PM ET

Been a little while since I did one. Hope you enjoy it.

Chris “The All American” Weidman vs Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida

 

 

At UFC 175 on 4th on July weekend we will get treated to an excellent match up between two of the best middle weight fighters in the world. Chris Weidman will defend his title against Lyoto Machida. We can talk on and on about how Machida is the long time training partner and friend of former division king pin Anderson Silva. We could tie that in with the way that Weidman defeated Silva in back to back fights, both largely contested on the feet. But the Silva back story is just a ploy by marketing to make this seem like some type of revenge match and honestly I doubt that is on either fighters minds. Lets look at some advantages and disadvantages of each fighter.

Weidman vs Southpaws – Striking

The first thing you will notice in this match up is that Weidman is an orthodox fighter and Machida is a southpaw. It is worth noting that in 3 of his last 4 fights Weidman has faced a southpaw. He seems to be very comfortable with facing them and is improving on his flaws. If you read my breakdown of Weidman vs Silva 2 you might remember me talking about Weidman avoiding the straight left by ducking to his right. This opens up the left high kick. He also tends to avoid the left high kick by moving straight back with his head raised. This opens up the straight left. Mirko CroCop used this to great success during his career.

In this picture you can see four occasions in just 1 minute of action where Weidman does this. He has improve on this flaw over time though. During his fights with Silva he didn’t commit the mistake as much, but Silva is also a much different striker than most fighters. Lyoto Machida absolutely loves this combo. Of all the active fighters Machida and Belfort try to exploit this the most.

If you go back and watch the Machida vs Munoz fight you will see Machida set up his finish. He throws a couple of his patented lunging left straights, then he throws several left low kicks. That is not enough though he also utilizes feints very well. Machida works to get the timing of his opponent and looks for openings to exploit. If he doesn’t find an opening he creates it with feints. When he finds an opening he likes, he pounces on it.

Look for Weidman to try and close the distance and use tight boxing combos to score points on Machida, while the Dragon tries to keep the distance and use his karate style to outscore Weidman.

Weidman vs Southpaws – Grappling

There is a big difference in wrestling when fighters are in opposing stances. The distance between a southpaw and orthodox fighter is much greater than between two men with the same stance.

Here are two stills of Anderson Silva. On the left he is fighting Chael Sonnen and both fighters have the same stance (southpaw). On the right he is fighting Nate Marquardt and both have different stances. Notice how much closer Chael is than Nate. Machida is already a tough person to track down and a tougher person to take down. This distance will make take downs very difficult for Weidman.

The All American wrestler has the skills to take Machida down but I am not convinced he will want to expend the energy to track Machida down and attempt take downs. I think a more likely scenario is a striking match and if Weidman is presented a take down he will go for it. The same can be said for Machida though, he likes to mix in trips when given the opportunity.

Machida – Wrestling Defense

Other than distance, movement and an obvious sumo base what does Machida do to stop wrestlers? The low calf kick. You have probably seen this 100 times and might not have even noticed. A fighter walks in toward Machida and he delivers a low kick right above their ankle. This presents the attacker with a double edge sword of a decision. Either plant the foot and eat the kick which stops them in their tracks or lift their leg to check the kick and get knocked off balance.

In still 1 Randy Couture plants and eats the kick which as predicted stops his movement. In still 2 Rashad evans decides to check the kick and is knocked off balance. Both fighters ate a straight left hand for their efforts. Machida will without a doubt try to utilize this against Weidman in their upcoming fight.

Prediction

Lyoto holds a distinct advantage in the striking game and if either fighter is going to win by KO I give him the edge. Weidman is an underrated striker. Shocking that I say that about a guy with two KO wins over Anderson Silva, but it is true. He will need to be at his absolute best to beat Machida though. The Dragon is just on another level in the striking game, is much more accomplished and has a more refined arsenal. The problem for Lyoto is that he does not blow many fighters out of the water (his 8 KO wins no included of course). A few flurries or a late take down by Weidman and he can easily steal a round that Machida “should” have won. If this fight goes to a decision it will be very close.

Look for Weidman to close the distance, while Machida tries to keep away. Keep a close eye on the lead foot of each fighter. That will be key. I expect the experience of Machida to be the key here and he will be able to keep his lead foot outside Weidmans which opens up his striking.

Here you see Vitor Belfort gaining the outside foot position before he lands a head kick on Akiyama.

This is such a tough fight to call. I have been a fan of Machida since the first time I watched him fight. I am a born and raised Long Islander and always root for Serra/Longo guys. I think it will be a very close fight but say Machida wins via UD 48-47.

Responses

michigandolphin
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06.19.2014 | 7:51 PM ET

Very well written, man. Keep up the good work.

"Frig off, bud"

benjaminbrandt
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06.19.2014 | 8:54 PM ET

If this fight goes to a decision, Machida will lose.  He has a style unfriendly to judge's decisions, even if he lands more.  


"I have not yet begun to defile myself. "

Anik
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06.19.2014 | 10:00 PM ET

I think Machida's going to win the fight, but there is a potential for a robbery to happen (like ben said).

One thing I really like about Machida that FantasyMMA didn't mention is how he sometimes throws a punch even before his kick landed. He did it against Munoz and Rashad Evans, and had great success. The reason for this is because the punch is completely unexpected; wrestlers (like Munoz, Evans and Weidman) tend to focus on the kick in order to try and take advantage but they always fail to realize that a punch is going to follow right after.

I just think that Machida is a bad style match-up for any wrestler because of his power in the clinch and his elusiveness. The only good style match-up I could think of that could take advantage of Machida is Mousasi's, and we all saw what happened; Machida's athleticism was what won him that fight.

EDIT: Weidman was a good style match-up against Anderson and I think that helped him win the two fights but I think Machida's going to take this one, but I have a feeling that it's going to be close.

* Edited at 06.19.2014, 10:01 PM ET *

"الله أكبرl"

BORD3RLIN3
BORD3RLIN3

06.20.2014 | 1:27 PM ET

this is the fight i am most looking forward too at the min . it could go both ways and i wanted this fight over the belfort fight so when belfort pulled out i was so  happed when lyoto got the call .
i think lyoto will try hurt chris for what he did to silva no lyoto has said he wont but there has to bee some little part of him  that wants to since him and silva are good buddies and lyoto pretty much was champ at light heavy since anderson was middleweight champ .
this weight is where lyoto should always of been at and if chris can beat him the i will be impressed with chris and could see him holding the belt for awhile .
ACFMMA
ACFMMA

06.20.2014 | 3:27 PM ET

1 mistake by machida and hes



WishIsHere
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06.20.2014 | 4:03 PM ET

In all honesty,  it will probably look more like this. Weidman's stand up is probably more about the level of Bader and Davis and certainly not close to Bones or Shogun.




* Edited at 06.20.2014, 4:04 PM ET *

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amp112
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06.20.2014 | 5:02 PM ET


One thing is for sure: if Machida wants this, he can't have one of those Phil Davis/Dan Henderson/Rampage (1st 2 rds) fights.
skelliher
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06.20.2014 | 5:07 PM ET

Weidman's standup being on the level of Bader is pretty ridiculous. He's no Machida, but the dude didn't just drop Anderson Silva twice, he also soundly out-landed him ON THE FEET in 3+ rounds in separate fights. 

* Edited at 06.20.2014, 5:08 PM ET *

"When a game cannot be won, change the game."

Anik
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06.20.2014 | 5:46 PM ET

@WishIsHere LOL DAFUQQ

Like what Kelliher said, Weidman's stand up may not be the best in the division but he is a great striker. His fight IQ is ridiculously high too (I would go as far as to say that it's the highest in MMA right now, even more than Jones') and that is key to success in the stand-up department.

Bader on the other hand...

Bader's chin is always up, he spams his right hand like a UFC Undisputed 2010 fighter and his fight IQ is very weak, which is a shame considering that he's one of the most athletic fighters in his division. Comparing Weidman to Bader is insulting.

"الله أكبرl"

joe kerr
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06.20.2014 | 5:53 PM ET

LOL, Wish be trolling... If Weidman's stand up was Bader's level, either of his fights with Silva would end like Silva vs. Leben/Franklin/Marquardt/Griffin... (well, just take your pick). And yeah, Weidman has been learning and adapting to new stuff very fast, in fact that's what made Serra and Longo sing his praises from the very beginning.

"If the enemy rejects the ground, I would take him down by tackle. Why didn’t he [Royler] do so? May I introduce him to a good coach? His tackle was... like a girl’s one... Mr. Royler, how are you feeling?" - Kazushi Sakuraba

benjaminbrandt
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06.20.2014 | 6:13 PM ET

I, for one, hope Weidman sprints directly at Machida with his hands down.  

I.E.; Bader level striking.  

* Edited at 06.20.2014, 6:22 PM ET *

"I have not yet begun to defile myself. "

DietDrPepper
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06.20.2014 | 7:20 PM ET

Liking the Cheetah quite a bit in this one. Too elusive, too quick, his TDD is too good. The Chris will push the pace and be more aggressive but the Cheetah will be landing the better shots. i think Weedman will score some takedowns but they'll me mostly ineffectual and he'll start to slow down in the later rounds. The judges generally don't score Machida fights probably so it'll probably be something like 48-47, 47-48, 48-47 and your winner by split decision and NEWWWWWWWWWW UFC Middleweight Champion..
WishIsHere
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06.20.2014 | 8:37 PM ET

I'm not saying Weidman's striking is exactly at Baders level. I'm saying when comparing guys that Machida has faced, Bader and Davis are much closer in striking level to Weidman than Shogun and Bones.

Do you guys realize that Bones and Shogun (at the time) were much much much faster speed wise than Weidman (and much more talented on in the stand up dept), which allowed them to hit Machida with counters that led to the finishes. Machida in both of those fights was having success until he got overzealous and got hit with those counters. I honestly think Weidman is much too slow to set them up. He's not a bad striker by any means, but comparably to Machida's opponents I would say he's on the level of the guys I stated above.

He definitely has a better defensive game than Bader and doesn't get as impatient as Bader, but he's just so slow when I see him striking. What lent to his success against Silva was Silva's hesitancy due to Weidman's wrestling, just like in the first Sonnen fight. Machida won't be afraid of Weidman's wrestling because he's pretty much wrecked every wrestler he's faced in his career outside of Davis who had a solid 20-30 lbs on him and was still out struck and won off of meaningless takedowns.

* Edited at 06.20.2014, 8:38 PM ET *

"I bought a Bruno mars cd once - gunn4206"

FantasyMMA
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06.20.2014 | 9:03 PM ET

Wish

I disagree about Weidman only having success because Silva was worried about his wrestling. Weidman was the absolute worst match up possible for Silva. That goes for his wrestling and the way he strikes.

http://www.tapology.com/forum/open/531492-Chris_Weidman_vs_Anderson_Silva_2_Analysis?page=1

That was my post after the first Silva vs Weidman fight. Weidman did everything right in the striking department.

I agree Weidman is no Shogun. I am a huge Machida fan, but that Shogun knock down is something I like to watch. If you look at it in slow motion you can see the only reason it happens is because Machida actually missed his punch. Machida doesn't make many mistakes like that.

Can't wait for this fight.
Anik
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06.20.2014 | 10:04 PM ET

@WishIsHere Wait...Shogun?

Weidman's striking is better than Shogun's. It's much more well rounded than Shogun's and it's more consistent as well. Shogun's boxing is repetitive, he never really has much success with it unless he's kicking because that opens the opponent's guard up more and it allows him to set up more diverse combinations that integrate both kicks and hands. With opponents focusing on Shogun's kicks (because they're so good), he gets the opportunity to throw his hands.

I honestly think that Weidman would beat Shogun up in a kickboxing fight. He's not as fast but he uses his length effectively, his striking is diverse and he's well rounded, both offensively and defensively. The same cannot be said for Shogun.

* Edited at 06.20.2014, 10:04 PM ET *

"الله أكبرl"

Nomad
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06.20.2014 | 10:43 PM ET

Most hardcore fans cannot look at Weidman honestly, they don't believe he truly beat Anderson and are hoping for Machida to reassure them that they're right. 

This is Weidmans chance to put his stamp on the division, to turn the doubters into something else be it haters or believers if he mauls all over Machida what can they come up with...He can't handle Romero's Olympic level wrestling? LOLOLOLOL, no. That Jacare is going to submit him? He's arguably a better mixed martial arts grappler than Jacare...You going to come up with that Mousasi best striker in MMA crap again and how he can't handle it even though he did Anderson and Machida?

My prediction is this, Weidman is 29 but with only 11 fights a very young 29. Machida is 36? It's just not his time for a second chance at the top. If Machida wins a round it will be the first, as Weidman is going to have to adjust and calculate the range and speed to find his timing and figure out how to take away space, but once that happens it will be his fight anyway he wants it.

That's my opinion. Nothing is ever set in stone but I'm rather confident so I'm not going to speak gingerly for anyones acceptance. Machida is amazing, it's shocking how well he's adapted to 185lbs and how athletic he's looked. The top heap of MWs is my favorite top 10 of any division in MMA right now. I think Vitor is Weidmans hardest fight or was....at least.

* Edited at 06.20.2014, 10:47 PM ET *

"If I have a goal, then it is to escape from this literalism. I'll never achieve it; in the same way that I'll never manage to describe what really dwells within my character, although I keep on trying."

geezhound
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06.20.2014 | 11:56 PM ET

"If this fight goes to a decision, Machida will lose.  He has a style unfriendly to judge's decisions, even if he lands more."

Shogun would disagree with this statement, 

"Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity."

skelliher
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06.21.2014 | 1:02 AM ET

Going to sound like blasphemy, but I honestly have always thought Muay Thai is overrated in terms of striking. I think Shogun is wild and sloppy, but in his youth he was extremely fast, powerful and had natural timing, so he was a great striker. His boxing is better than his MT. 

I think Anderson Silva has solid MT strikes, but is almost a Karate-style fighter at heart, and a counter-boxer. 

But, I'm a Karate stylist overall, so I'm biased. When your style is build on one hit = one kill and hitting without being hit, Muay Thai is going to be ludicrous to you. 

* Edited at 06.21.2014, 1:03 AM ET *

"When a game cannot be won, change the game."

Nomad
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06.21.2014 | 1:16 AM ET

Muay Thai is absurdly overrated....it's just those cats in Thailand train harder than anyone I've ever seen.from age 5 to 50 they grow in the.gym, in the ring, it's fighting, it's art, it's spiritual...Anyways in MMA the octagon is so large and fighters are so diverse guys utilize way more.movement and technique than  a thai boxer, it's why Cerrones limited mechanics will always catch up to.him. You can never forget to acknowledge simply skill level Gennady Golovkin isn't athletic, fast or big but his technique, defense, timing and power are some of the best in boxing.and nobody at MW can **** with him.

Rogan kept saying Mighty Mouse was using Muay Thai bot watch that **** then watch a thai fight, he was utilizing far more unpredictable striking patterns, complex footwork, distances and angles. Anderson is.a.black belt in Tae Kwon Do, has ropes in Capoeira, is black belt level in Shodokan, trains boxing with Olympians, Pros and Under Roach, is a Thai Champion and did a lot of Wing Chung when he was young...also as a martial artist he was a true genius. These Aldo, Barao, Barboza cats are definitely.combining traditional Muay thai with.boxing and tae kwn do and of course adapting it to MMA. Great boxing doesn't translate to great boxing in MMA and no not becUae of hur dur takedown threat either. Same for olympic wrestlers there's a reason guys like Vila and WArren get outwreztled and Cormier never does...technical reasons. Even the most applicable of styles take a lot of work to be maximally effective in MMA let alone nearly inapplicable stylws and types of athletes.

"If I have a goal, then it is to escape from this literalism. I'll never achieve it; in the same way that I'll never manage to describe what really dwells within my character, although I keep on trying."

skelliher
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06.21.2014 | 1:26 AM ET

It seems like anytime someone throws a knee or a kick in the UFC now, Rogan is commenting on their great MT. 

MT doesn't have a monopoly on throwing knees. Karate and other striking styles have been doing it for centuries.

"When a game cannot be won, change the game."


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