Shields vs. Ellenberger Predictions

This is the official prediction commentary thread for Shields vs. Ellenberger. Let's see what you've got.

Shields is rediculously under rated here. If he could lay on and decision huge middleweights, I don't see what changes against Ellenberger. Its not like Ellenberger has amazing striking other than his heavy hands.

His win over Henderson was due 100% to a bad weight cut for Henderson and him gassing. He shook off all of Shields' TD attempts in the first so easily, and destroyed him with strikes. He gassed terribly in the second, and got out wrestled. If he gassed that bad in any other fight he would have gotten outwrestled just as easily. 

As for Hendo gassing: It's hard to maintain your cardio when you've got a 185 pound man on you holding top control for four rounds.
And even if Hendo only got beaten b/c he gassed, Shields still took down and controlled Mayhem, Okami, Condit, etc.

Hardest punch to not end an MMA fight ever!

@fglop, those are 3 big wins, but Ellenberger is a much better wrestler than all three of those guys. The Condit and Okami wins were a long time ago and both have improved a lot, and would probably win a rematch. Before he started training with Sonnen, Okami was getting muscled by Rich Franklin. Condit has clearly improved in leaps in bounds, but his wrestling has always been his worst asset. 

@minotauro  I think the Rocha fight showed that Ellenberger is susceptible to high level BJJ, which Jake Shields has. I think if Rocha didn't let up after the first round, he could've taken a decision. Anways, Ellenberger doesn't seem to have high level TDD, he could be another fitch and have amazing offensive wrestling but mediocre TDD. While Condit does get taken down a lot, he got good BJJ from the bottom and is very rarely controlled for three full rounds, which Shields was able to do. Plus Condits a very dangerous striker, much more dangerous than Ellenberger and Shields survived him. Yeah, Okami has improved very easily but he wasn't 'controlled' by Rich Franklin. He's just an incredibly slow starter and didn't do much of anything to push the pace against Rich, doesn't mean Rich was controlling him. Anways, Okami has always been a very strong guy with good TDD (probably better than Ellenberger's).

So all of this adds up to Shields beating people with skillsets better than Ellenberger's for the past five years. Ellenberger probably will be a top WW someday but Shields is a top 15-20 p4p and way too much for him at this stage.

Even though shields has gone 3-1 in his last 4 fights, i think he didnt look great in any of them. He got saved by the bell when mayhem had him in the RNC, beat hendo only cause he completely gassed due to a bad weight cut, looked like crap against kampman in a fight i felt kampman won and got abused by GSP. Before that miller fight he fought really sub par competition except for those 2 wins against okami and condit which were 5 years ago

Pretty conflicted with this fight now more than it was first announced...got Shields by decision right now but started to lean towards Ellenberger

Slight favorite is just a silly comment. Ellenberger has good wrestling and striking, but at best he might be equal to Shields. He does have some KO power, but he will not KO Shields (Hendo tested that theory). Ellenberger's flaw is he is constantly put into bad positions by his lack of BJJ and weakness off his back. As soon as this hits the mat, you will find Ellenberger on his back or being submitted.

Shields is the more experienced fighter, and IMHO the more durable fighter. Ellenberger is good, and has all the tools to win, but I'm going with Shields on this fight because he's beaten the better stable of fighters than Ellenberger has. If Ellenberger wins, then I say put Ellenberger in against Jon Fitch, or if Shields wins put him in against Jon Fitch.

Somebody has to beat Jon Fitch to prove once and for all who the true #1 contender is for a shot at the GSP.

After Shields last few weeks I won't pick against him, but wouldnt be surprised if Ellenberger pulls the upset

One common opponent between both fighters jumps out at me...............Carlos Condit!!!! Jake Shields beat Condit, and Ellenberger lost a very close decision, but Ellenberger has been on a tear since his loss to Condit, is younger, has a better reach, and is possibly the stronger fighter. In some ways, on paper this fight plays right into Ellenberger's hands, but Shields has fought everyone around the world, has a wealth of experience, has been a champion, and knows how to win. Shields is the only fighter to make GSP lose a round since GSP's loss to Matt Serra. Shields has the better resume, and is far more decorated. I think Shields wins this one by a close decision.

I think Shields will out-decision Ellenberger. Not to say Ellenberger isn't a good fighter, but I don't think he'll have what it takes to finish a more experienced Shields.

I got Shields, Elenberger hasn't fought near the competition Shields has.

* Edited at 09.11.2011, 6:33 AM ET *

This fact has been mentioned before, but I'll repeat it.  I think it's very telling to watch Ellenberger's fight with Rocha, a tough, maybe top 20 guy, and ELLENBERGER ALMOST LOST!!!!!!!! Shields is a stronger version of Rocha.  If Shields gets the takedown, E-berg won't be able to shake him off

But @Dave,

if that's the argument, then we could also point out that Jake Shields pretty much lost to Kampmann. And got COMPLETELY outworked by St. Pierre.

MMAth never works.

Jake Shields, in my opinion, is yet to win a fight in the UFC. Jake Ellenberger wins fights on 17 days notice, he wins fights with opponents he wasn't originally matched up against. And now he'll win a fight with an opponent who just fought for the WW belt.

There's going to be no way Shield's is going to avoid getting hurt in this fight and is going to take big shots while on the feet, but this is not out of the norm, this is his style. He has relentless takedowns and works hard in the clinch, Ellenberger will find success with big strikes but will eventually get dragged to the mat, where shields will methodically work for mount.

Ellenberger was mounted in both the Rocha and Condit fight for extended periods of time and this is where Shields is best, I don't see him losing this position as Condit did when going for a submission. Ellenberger has a good sprawl but may work against him as Shields likes to immediately clinch on sprawling opponents, where Shields then will have the opportunity to grind Ellenberger on the fence.

* Edited at 09.13.2011, 10:19 PM ET *

Not for nothing, but Dan Henderson couldn't even finish Shields and he had him hurt bad.  Ellenberger hasn't fought anyone on the same level as Shields.  Also Shields hung in there standing with GSP, don't see how Ellenberger wins this fight honestly.