Rousey vs. McMann

This is the official discussion thread for Rousey vs. McMann. Let's see what you've got.

What will the UFC ever do if Rousey loses her title?  With all the hype and promotion they've heaped on her, they will have absolutely no Plan B.

Their desperately-improvised Plan B will be an instant rematch.  I hope Dana is betting his house on Ronda winning.  And if McMann pulls off the win, it won't be the 'Upset of the Century'.  

If McMann wins, you will all hear the rolling thunder outside the building.  It will be the popping of champagne corks all the way to Antarctica 

@Bill, do you think they were in the same situation with Anderson? I think if Mcmann wins, they'll build it as, "the woman who beat the GOAT." Then promptly have a rematch. Idk, not much else in they could do, the division isn't that deep. 

"What will the UFC ever do if Rousey loses her title?  With all the hype and promotion they've heaped on her, they will have absolutely no Plan B."

Um hype Sara Mcmann. like they are Hyping Chris Weidman and Hyping Renan Barao, and will hype Johnny Hendricks  now those dominant champs are gone. Kind of like they Hyped Cain Velasquez after their cash cow Brock lost. Beating a Dominant Champ just makes the person who beat them that much more badass. If Rousey loses McMann becomes the next big thing.

McMann is gonna smash Rousey. So pumped!

Once upon a time, hype was a carefully-nurtured artform.  It was anticipated, carefully laid out like manicuring a lawn.  When you see a champion is going against a tough opponent, you extend the opponent the courtesy of the grand old ballyhoo.  You give them profiles, significant exposure.  

The UFC has woefully neglected McMann.  If they start the hype the night she wins, they will all look like unprepared fools.  Caught with their advertising pants down.  How awkward.  

And when they set the PR machine for McCann, it will look like they are suddenly abandoning Rousey, 'the greatest star they ever had.'  

There is an old saying in the advertising business.  The more something needs advertising, the less value it has on its own.  Amazing things require less advertising than schlock.

GSP, Lesnar, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva, Matt Hughes, and Chuck Liddell required very little advertising and hype.  They sold themselves by the scope of their talent.  Their skills, tools, records, etc. all announced them as badass fighters.  We all thrilled to their exploits and looked forward to their next fights.

Ronda Rousey has her one tool, and 2 wins.  Yet the PR Hype Monster says she's bigger than Jon Jones now, and GSP, Anderson Silva and Lesnar were in the past.  Now that's a hype Monster WAY, WAY WAY out of control and making itself look ridiculous.  Dana White is looking more like PT Barnum every day.

* Edited at 02.21.2014, 8:35 PM ET *

Dana literally admitted to UFC Womens fighting is the Ronda Rousey show, if Rousey wasn't in the equation Zuffa wouldn't even be considering adding.women divisions right now as we speak. I personally think Women in the UFC will crumble like in Boxing give it a few years no one will care....

That said, Rousey is going to shadow all of her opponents in the UFC and it doesn't.help McMann is quieter than a church mouse. Rousey won't squeeze more than 350,000 PPV out of this and in time her headlining will mean 200,000ish buys then.she will become a co headline and a FOX headliner. People are already seeing Rousey isn't  really much of a personality and if you want hot go watch **** or something.

"There is an old saying in the advertising business.  The more something needs advertising, the less value it has on its own.  Amazing things require less advertising than schlock."


Bill - doesn't this contradict your first 3 paragraphs?


"GSP, Lesnar, Jon Jones, Anderson Silva, Matt Hughes, and Chuck Liddell required very little advertising and hype.  They sold themselves by the scope of their talent.  Their skills, tools, records, etc. all announced them as badass fighters.  We all thrilled to their exploits and looked forward to their next fights."


All of these individuals were significantly pushed by the UFC. And Lesnar wasn't hyped? Are you serious? What was his MMA record before coming to the UFC, Bill? He had one fight. And then built an MMA record, not unlike what Rousey is doing now. And she happens to have an Olympic medal, which is, you know, kind of a big thing. It's not like she was serving waffles at a diner prior to becoming one of the most prominent figures in WMMA. If she beats an Olympic wrestler on Saturday, will she distinguished herself enough for you? Or is she not able to build a legacy and record like all of the other fighters you mentioned?

Lol Brock Lesnar didn't require hype.. Sold himself on scope of... wow Bill that is some of your finest work I think`

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Sara McMann @+410 statistically has about a 20 % chance of winning, Cummings @+1050 has a statistical 6% chance of winning. Demian Maia @+255 has a 28% chance of victory. Tapology (currently) has these fights predicted statistically perfect. I thought that was interesting

Brock Lesnar didn't require much hype.  Yeah, that's right.  He arrived in MMA with a built-in fanbase from WWE.  He was highly touted like few others.  He was his own hype.  He was given to outspoken, flamboyant self-promotion, like Muhammad Ali.

I'm not saying the UFC didn't do what they could to EXPLOIT his silly behavior.  I AM saying they didn't need to.  He was a show.  When he foamed at the mouth and put Budweiser down in the cage, the reporters and sports writers had all they needed, without ANY help from the UFC to fan the flames.

Rousey is not like Brock.  She didn't bring an Olympic fan-base with her.  She is not as inherently interesting.  It is a mystery why she is going out of her way to make herself less popular.  She hung around the Diaz brothers too long.  She thinks being an anti-hero make her intriguing.  Too late, she will find out she is simply unpopular.  She's not interesting, just annoying.

Tonight's PPV will bomb and bomb huge.  It will draw less than 300,000 PPV buys, because Rousey is carrying the event pretty much by herself.  When Rashad Evans got hurt, it left her alone.  

Personally, I look forward to MacDonald vs. Maia, but that is not a big event for PPV buyers.  This will expose Rousey as a non-drawing card.  She is not the celebrity draw that the UFC is promoting her as.

She CANNOT carry a PPV event by herself.  If they had loaded the card with other big fights, she could have been a contributor.  Put her against Cris Justino and THAT'S completely different.  That would sell HUGE.  But mostly because of Cyborg, not Rousey.

* Edited at 02.22.2014, 11:36 AM ET *

Bill, what is a ppv number reflective of a star and draw headlining a card? 

This PPV will prove Ronda can't sell PPVs like Dana and the UFC thinks she can. It's a weak card that has gotten very little promotion, and all the promotion is on the Ronda fight.

UFC 157 was a different thing. It was the first ever women's fight in UFC history.. and it was for a belt. So the appeal was totally different. Not only that, she had some good company on the card. Dan Henderson, Lyoto Machida, Urijah Faber, Robbie Lawler, Josh Koscheck. She didn't sell that PPV on her own.

UFC 168 had all the media attention due to their TUF rivalry, but again.. she didn't sell that PPV on her own. She was on another card with pretty good company. Anderson Silva, Chris Weidman, Josh Barnett, Travis Browne.

Her previous 2 UFC fights were on events that you cant compare to this one. With Cormier/Evans, it was decent. That fight made it a PPV quality card. Now it's Cormier vs... Patrick Cummins? Who's that? They're trying to sell the fight like it'll be some of grudge match. I don't think that'll be enough and I don't think the casual fans will buy into it. You also have Rory/Maia, which is pretty solid, but it's received absolutely no promotion. And the two PPV openers are Waldburger/Pyle and Whittaker/Thompson. Those are 2 decent prelims... definitely not worth buying a PPV for. This card is incredibly weak in comparison to 157/168, and the buys will show that.

I don't think the PPV buys will be very high, but not only because Ronda. The overall card does not have a lot of "star power". The names that casual MMA fans know. Dedicated followers look at the card and see a bunch of great match ups, the casual fan says "who is Rapheal Assuncao?"

Oh Geez.  I can't believe it.  I am actually, believe it or not, in total agreement with MikeLovesTacos!  What's this world coming to??!!  I am mortified!

Nomad is calling it like it is.  This card is very, very weak.  When Evans pulled out, it doomed the card to being carried by Rousey.  And she's not the superstar Dana White is selling her as.  Not remotely close.

@Blackwork  You are asking a deceptively simple question but the answer is anything but.  To isolate  fighter's value to a card has never been an easy or simple task.  The reason being, cards have many other fighters, which makes it tough to know just what numbers any one person is bringing to the event.

Under normal circumstances, a superstar should result in over 800,000 PPV buys, but only if the card has other credible fights to supplement the Big Fight headlining it.  

GSP and Lesnar usually brought the big PPV numbers.  I predict this event will draw less than 300,000 PPV buys, and that will be revealing of Rousey's lack of PPV strength.  Revealing but catastrophic.

But even that is deceptive.  Rousey could possibly draw big but they would have to put her up against Cyborg.  Now that would sell and sell huge!  Would be the smart business decision.  And Rousey vs. Holly Holm would also sell big.  At least I think it would.  But in all cases, these Rousey fights must be placed in the right settings of other credible and interesting fights.  All by themselves?  Would be anyone's guess.

And finally, we must remember.  Being a big PPV superstar is not a function of fighting talent ONLY.  It is a combination of factors.  It is a reflection of how one is PERCEIVED by the fans.  

It is true that some of the greatest fighters, like Anderson Silva, were not PPV superstars.  His talent was there, but his personality was bland.  He had the language barrier.  He was not American.  He was perceived as ****y and somewhat boring.  Not his fighting but the man himself.  He proved that nice guys sell less than bad boys.  Anderson never trashed talked.  He resisted even under supreme provocation from Sonnen.  

GSP had all the PPV credentials fans wanted.  Talented, nice guy, spoke English, had a built-in Canadian fan-base, right attitude, respected his opponents, etc.  

To answer your question, under normal circumstances, a PPV superstar should be able to generate 800,000 PPV buys, if the rest of the card is credible.  Did I answer your question to your satisfaction?

* Edited at 02.22.2014, 12:27 PM ET *

Wait a minute Bill. If Rousey isn't a "PPV star" (whatever the **** that is) because she can't draw the needed casuals, then how will Cyborg draw them? You think Cyborg is more well known than Rousey? Why? Because Strikeforce or ProElite were bigger than the UFC?  I guess I must be lost.

Just had to throw that out there but I, personally, get very bored by buy-rate and other "business" talk. I'm a fight fan. Let the promoters worry about that ****.

I understand your confusion, mulefloyd.  I am only giving my personal opinions, which have never meant anything to anyone else here in the house.  The house is still trying hard to pretend I don't know anything about this stuff.  Their hypocrisy.

It is my personal opinion that Rousey isn't a big star.  I don't even think of her as a star, period.  She has Olympic credentials, but so what.  Sarah McMann does too but nobody is making any big deal about her, are they?  Rousey has only 2 fights in the UFC.  Big deal.  So what?  How does that launch her into stardom?  

You ask about Cyborg drawing better?  It's the combination that would be the draw.  Cyborg is a woman's star.  Rousey is PROMOTED as a woman's star by Dana White.  Cyborg beat the former best, Gina Carano.  Rousey was appointed by White to be the first UFC woman's fighter.  Massive difference.

But if you pit the greatest woman's badass, Cyborg, against the promoted, UFC, girl, you have a big fight.  It's the pretend hype of the UFC that the fans want to see shattered to a million pieces.  

It that fight were promoted right, it would get 1 million PPVs buys, if the rest of the card were credible, and didn't stink.

Of course, we will never see that, because Dana White is terrified he'd lose his ******** hype.  The Emperor would be seen as having no clothes.

I think so, Bill. But I'm not sure what your 800k number means for other fighters who haven't been able to pull anything near that in 2013. Maybe the sky is falling.

Just looking at 2013 ppv estimates alone:

Aldo v. Edgar had 330k buys
Velasquez v. Bigfoot II had 380k buys
Henderson v. Evans had 140k buys
Aldo v. Jung had 180k ppv buys
Henderson v. Pettis had 270k buys
Jones v. Gus had 310k buys
Velasquez v. JDS III had 330k buys

Now, you can make whatever point youre making with what it takes to be a ppv "star," but the list above is full of some of the best fighters in the world. If you think Rousey's <300k ppv sales are because she is missing something, please tell me what any of the guys on the above list are missing, for them to fall 500k in sales short of The Burgess Threshold (at least 800k ppv buys).

And if you're in inclined to actually attempt to do that, let me save you some time. Couldn't the answer be that some cards sell, some don't. But true mma fans want to see the best in the world fight, and until proven otherwise, Rousey is one of the best in the world. That may not generate more than 300k in ppv sales, but seems like Aldo has a hard time doing that, too, among others.  So Im not really understanding the vitriol in your posts about her. The card is what it is.