Topic: Top Lightweights - 155 lbs.

let's discuss our LW rankings

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gunn4206
gunn4206
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07.12.2013 | 7:06 PM ET

alright bill hopefully this should work for you ...

"RIP Bill Burgess , RIP Zsasz"

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bman518
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07.12.2013 | 7:12 PM ET

@gunn Why do you have Diego Sanchez at #6?

"Check yourself before you wreck yourself."

gunn4206
gunn4206
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07.12.2013 | 7:15 PM ET

i have him at 6 cause i don't have him at 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9 or 10 lol  .. and imo he's a top 10 guy

"RIP Bill Burgess , RIP Zsasz"

bman518
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07.12.2013 | 7:19 PM ET

No he's not, he should've lost to Gomi who's ranked nowhere near the top 20.

"Check yourself before you wreck yourself."

Bill Burgess
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07.12.2013 | 7:57 PM ET

LightWeights: Seething Caudron of Talent

For a while, I haven't been able to decide which Shark Tank is the deepest in the UFC.  My heart says WW, my mind thinks LW might be catching up.  Since I'm not as familiar with LW, please bear with me.  I will take everything into consideration.  Here we go!

Top Tier: Benson Henderson, Gilbert Melendez, Gray Maynard, TJ Grant, Josh Thomson, Anthony Pettis, Joe Lauzon,  Takanori Gomi, Diego Sanchez, Nate Diaz

Mid-Tier: Jim Miller, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Eddie Alvarez, Donald Cerrone, Michael Chandler, Melvin Guillard, Jamie Varner, Ross Pearson, Sam Stout,

Bottom Tier: Curt Warburton, Kyle Watson, Matt Wiman, Andre Winner, Yves Edwards, Edson Barboza, Mark Bocek, Danny Castillo, Mac Danzig, Rafael Dos Anjos, Evan Dunham, Michael Johnson, Nik Lentz, John Makdessi, Anthony Njokuani, Aaron Riley, Shane Roller, George Sotiropoulos, Thiago Tavares, Paul Taylor, Gleison Tibau.

This division lost some good fighters when Frankie Edgar and Clay Guida moved down to FW.  Seasoned vet Spence Fisher has all but stopped fighting, as has Sean Sherk. It would be significantly strengthened by the additions of BJ Penn, Jose Aldo, and Eddie Alvarez.  Penn is a big question mark, as to whether or not he is retired or not.  

My 11-19

11. Jim Miller
12. Khabib Nurmagomedov
13. Eddie Alvarez
14. Donald Cerrone
15. Michael Chandler
16. Melvin Guillard
17. Jamie Varner
18. Ross Pearson
19. Sam Stout

Coming LW fights:

Michael Chiesa vs. Jorge Masvidal, July 27, 2013, UFC on Fox
Danny Castillo vs. Tim Means, July 27, 2013, UFC on Fox
Mac Danzig vs. Melvin Guillard, July 27, 2013, UFC on Fox
Yves Edwards vs. Daron Crickshank, July 27, 2013, UFC on Fox
Aaron Riley vs. Justin Salas, July 27, 2013, UFC on Fox
Joe Lauzon vs. Michael Johnson, August 17, 2013, UFC on Fox Sports 1
Ramsey Nijem vs. James Vick, August 17, 2013, UFC on Fox Sports 1
Donald Cerrone vs. Rafael dos Anjos, August 28, 2013, UFC on Fox Sports 1
Roger Bowling vs. Abel Trujillo, August 28, 2013, UFC on Fox Sports 1
Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis, August 31, 2013, UFC 164
Jamie Varner vs. Gleison "Tibau, August 31, 2013, UFC 164
Ryan Couture vs. Quinn Mulhern, August 31, 2013, UFC 164
Mike Ricci vs. Myles Jury, September 21, 2013, UFC 165
Mark Bocek vs. Michael Prazeres, September 21, 2013, UFC 165
Diego Sanchez vs. Gilbert Melendez, October 19, 2013, UFC 166
Tony Ferguson vs. Mike Rio, October 19, 2013, UFC 166

Presently, the following are not matched up in fights yet: Gray Maynard, Josh Thomson, Anthony Pettis, Jim Miller, Takanori Gomi, Khabib Nurmagomedov, Ross Pearson, Sam Stout.

Some of the above fighters are just after having fought recently.

Injured: TJ Grant

The above listing is tentative and soft.  I are prepared to adjust the sequence to some extent based on the order of the house.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
To assist everyone, here is the form chart for tapology,
1. Henderson 2. Melendez 3. Pettis 4. Grant 5. Cerrone 6. Maynard 7. Thomson 8. Chandler 9. Diaz 10. Miller 

11. Alvarez 12. Healy 13. Nurmagomedov 14. Lauzon 15. Aoki 16. Anjos 17. Varner 18. Barboza 19. Dunham 20. Tibau

21. Guillard 22. Gomi 23. Sanchez 24. Wiman 25. Masvidal 26. Jury 27. Pearson 28. Bocek 29. Castillo 30. Green
--------------------------------------
Official UFC Rankings, as of July 8, 2013.
1. Henderson 2. Melendez 3. Pettis 4. Grant 5. Thomson 6. Maynard 7. Cerrone 8. Niaz 9. Miller 10. Healy 11. dos Anjos

* Edited at 07.12.2013, 11:50 PM ET *

"Love God, live with honor, keep your agreements."

Bill Burgess
Bill Burgess
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07.12.2013 | 8:14 PM ET

The LW fight I'm most interested in seeing is the Sanchez vs. Melendez fight.  That should be intense.

I would also dearly enjoy watching Sanchez fight Nate Diaz.  That would be an epic scrap, too.

"Love God, live with honor, keep your agreements."

AnAlias
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07.12.2013 | 8:36 PM ET

lol  I love you Bill.  The lightweight division is "seething with talent."  I imagine a bubbling cauldron with Diego Sanchez rising out of it like an Orc in Lord of The Rings. 

Here's the rest of my rankings. 


11 Donald Cerrone
12 Shinya Aoki 
13 Khabib Nurmagomedov
14 Rafael Dos Anjos
15 Jorge Masvidal
16 Diego Sanchez
17 Jim Miller
18 Takanori Gomi
19 Joe Lauzon
20 Jamie Varner
21 Edson Barbosa
22 Melvin Guillard 
23 Evan Dunham
24 Gleison Tibau
25 Ross Pearson
26 Bobby Green
27 Isaac Vallie-Flagg
28 Myles Jury
29 Danny Castillo
30 Michael Chiesa
31 Matt Wiman
32 Mark Bocek
33 Paul Sass 
34 Jacob Volkmann 
35 James Krause

"Boxing is like jazz. The better it is, the less people appreciate it." - George Foreman

Fatality
Fatality
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07.12.2013 | 8:59 PM ET

Top Tier (UFC Championship Caliber): Henderson, Melendez

2nd Tier (Top Contender): Pettis, Grant

3rd Tier (Mid Contender): Maynard, Cerrone, Chandler, Thomson, Healy,

4th Tier (Low Contender): Diaz, Alvarez, Miller, Nurmagomedov

5th Tier (Gatekeeper/Potential Future Contender): Lauzon, Dos Anjos, Aoki, Varner, Barboza, Dunham, Tibau, Gomi, Guillard, Sanchez, Wiman




* Edited at 07.12.2013, 9:00 PM ET *

Bill Burgess
Bill Burgess
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07.12.2013 | 9:25 PM ET

Gee, AnAlias.  That image of the orc rising is a pretty creepy one.  Diego would be taken aback to be so compared.  I don't think Diego is that out of line in my Top 10.

But I do agree that he lost to Gomi.  Bad judging.  I am not a Sith Lord with these profiles.  Just another hard-working guy trying to create order out of confusion.  And I did ask for forbearance.  This is my first baby step out of WW.  I need all the help I can get.  And the fun is in the 10-30th rankings.  Anyone can slop together a Top 10.  Takes a man with balls to go Top 30.

* Edited at 07.12.2013, 9:26 PM ET *

"Love God, live with honor, keep your agreements."

Bigj383
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07.12.2013 | 11:48 PM ET

Pretty stacked division and very competitive a lot of these guys could beat eachother on any given day.

"It does not make sense that humans deliberately malfunction. - Upgrade"

Bill Burgess
Bill Burgess
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07.12.2013 | 11:58 PM ET

The LW division might be the most fluid class of all.  As Big said, so many guys could beat each other on any given day.  

"Love God, live with honor, keep your agreements."

mulefloyd
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07.13.2013 | 11:08 AM ET

My contribution:

Top level - Grant, Henderson, Melendez, Pettis, Thomson

Almost there - Barboza, Cerrone, Diaz, Dos Anjos, Dunham, Healy, Jury, Maynard, Miller, Nurmagomedov, Sanchez, Tibau/Varner winner

Then the majority, the UFC level. I have 72 current LWs on the roster so everyone not listed in the other 3 levels.

Probation - Clarke, Madadi, Taylor, Riley/Salas loser, Adriano Martins, Rafaello Oliveira, Pichel, Maguire, Medeiros, Proctor, Rio, Larsen, Camoes, Marcelo, Forte









"Grammar. The difference between knowing your **** and knowing you're ****."

Bill Burgess
Bill Burgess
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07.13.2013 | 11:38 AM ET

Boy, Mule, Grant must really impress you, seeing as you rank him above borh Henderson and Melendez.

It must have really crushed you when he got hurt.  What fight would most excite you now?

"Love God, live with honor, keep your agreements."

mulefloyd
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07.13.2013 | 11:53 AM ET

No, I'm not a fan of T.J. at all but when you look at who he's fought, beaten, and lost to in both the WW and LW divisions, I could see him overwhelming Benson just as he did Maynard although Maynard's chin is a definite question mark now. 

In this division for most exciting fight? Probably either Aldo or McGregor moving up to face Pettis or Khabib vs. Grant or Bendo.  Jury has really impressed me too. I wish they weren't giving him a placeholder fight vs. Ricci. Those are always dangerous.

"Grammar. The difference between knowing your **** and knowing you're ****."

Bill Burgess
Bill Burgess
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07.13.2013 | 1:25 PM ET

Thanks, Mule.  Yeah, everyone is just waiting for Aldo to make his move up.  He should cause some nice mayhem.  And I'm personally excited by Khabib.  He's such a totally exciting wild card.  No telling how how he will go.  His style is what excites me.  He just takes his opponents apart like a wildman.  

He may be the future of the division.  It would be pure chaos if they put Khabib against Aldo.  Aldo gotta move up!  Make your move NOW Jose!!  What the hell are you waiting for?? 

"Love God, live with honor, keep your agreements."

Bill Burgess
Bill Burgess
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07.13.2013 | 3:05 PM ET

Maintaining Rankings has some complex problems.  How do we adjust for excellent fighters now competing outside the UFC?  Chandler and Alvarez are not facing the caliber of quality competition that the UFC guys have to cope with.  So, they achieve good records against inferior fighters.  

So, how do we adjust for that and compensate?  I have no idea.  But I notice we all include them for justice sake.  

Another complicated issue is - do we rank according to overall career, or for the moment, going off their last fight?  The problem with that is the last fight might not have been representative of someone's real quality.  They might have fought over or under their true level.  They might have fought injured.  Or their training camp might have had unfortunate problems.  Which is why I am slow to raise or drop someone until I see a little more confirmation.  Such as Robbie Lawler.  

Another issue is how fast to drop fading stars like BJ Penn or Josh Koscheck.  Do we disregard past quality the moment one starts to show the dreaded, tell-tale signs of decline?  

Still another problem is the shocking upset, like Anderson Silva or GSP.  How patient are we prepared to be to wait for further verification as to what is fair?

These are relevant factors that need to be accounted for.  Which is why I was so reticent to take on another division.  It's a lot of work to maintain, constantly monitoring UFC events for new fights.  It's a long-term project and I ask for patience when you see me lagging behind the curve in terms of keeping up with each event.  

I thank AnAlias, fatality, mulefloyd, gunn, big and bman for participating in this project.  

"Love God, live with honor, keep your agreements."

mulefloyd
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07.13.2013 | 4:08 PM ET

Yeah, WW is easy by comparison because other than Askren there isn't another top 25 WW outside the UFC but with LW Alvarez & Chandler were legit top 10 LWs along with Aoki but with Aoki now with OneFC & Alvarez sidelined, Chandler doesn't have the resume and I would expect him to drop fairly quickly. Not enough other LWs in Bellator. FW may be competitive enough to keep Curran and the top Bellator fighters in the conversation awhile longer but until one of the upper echelon Bellator fighters comes to the UFC or one of the UFC cuts/castoffs makes a surprising run in Bellator, it will be the best of the "minor leagues" so even though several of their fighters might be able to beat several of the "mid-tier" UFC guys the average or casual fan won't acknowledge it.

And Weidman's win wasn't even close to as big an upset as Serra's Bill. 

"Grammar. The difference between knowing your **** and knowing you're ****."

Bill Burgess
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07.13.2013 | 4:17 PM ET

Yeah, that's true, mule, but it's still a monkey wrench to complicate an already subjective Ranking.

And if and when I get things wrong, I'm sure to hear about it.  These matters are extremely subjective and delicate.  My modus operandi is to wait for a second fight before I change a ranking.  Just to be sure and fair.

If a pattern starts to show itself, then I am all over it.  But I probably have more patience than most others here.

"Love God, live with honor, keep your agreements."

amp112
amp112
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07.13.2013 | 4:23 PM ET

LW division is so stacked that many of the guys I would have at 11-20 would probably be in the top ten if they were in other divisions. Nate Diaz, Khabib, & RDA come to mind.
Bill Burgess
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07.14.2013 | 11:38 AM ET

So who do you want to see Khalib Nurmagomedov  fight next?  I say he's ready for a big name.

Gray Maynard, Josh Thomson, Jim Miller, Takanori Gomi, Nate Diaz?

I say give Khalib Gray Maynard.  I don't give a damn that Gray is coming off a loss.  Make it happen, Dana.

* Edited at 07.14.2013, 11:39 AM ET *

"Love God, live with honor, keep your agreements."

mulefloyd
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07.14.2013 | 12:27 PM ET

How about Thomson or Healy?

"Grammar. The difference between knowing your **** and knowing you're ****."


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