Topic: Top Welterweights - 170 lbs.

Shields is not a top five welterweight (yet).

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jeremy
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10.25.2010 | 11:26 AM ET

I entered him at #7 after Saturday night, but I think he'd lose to every guy on my list ahead of him. Kampmann had that fight in his hands and let it slip away.


Dream matchup #1 is Shields versus Ben Askren.  Dream matchup #2 is Shields versus Hughes.

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skelliher
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10.25.2010 | 1:13 PM ET

Somewhat disagree.

This is the tough thing about rankings. On the one hand, I'd like to rank guys according to how good I personally think they are, but at the same time, I think it is important to rank fighters according to what they have actually accomplished. I think--right now--Condit would unleash a beating on Shields if they fought, however, Shields has earned his place ahead of him on the rankings. After all, Shields holds an unavenged loss over Condit and hasn't lost since that fight. I don't think it makes a lot of sense to rank Condit above him.

I have Shields at #3 in my WW rankings, and while I feel he has earned that spot, I do not disagree that there are men below him in the top ten that I would solidly pick to defeat him. When that happens, it will be reflected in my rankings. Until then, I don't think an intelligent argument can be made not to include Shields in the top 5.

And just as a personal dig to you, Jeremy--in good fun--I don't think Diaz belongs anywhere near the top five. Actually, I think he's one of the most overrated fighters in the world.

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trident
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10.25.2010 | 1:48 PM ET

shields is deserving with a win stream like that.  fitch lost to GSP but at least shields hasn't lost to him yet.  so for now i put shields at #2 at least until he loses to GSP or someone else.

and if we use your logic about only ranking guys on their accomplishments, skelliher, it wouldn't matter if diaz was overrated.  we'd still have to rank him on all the wins he's picking up.  i've got him in the middle of where you guys are at.
skelliher
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10.25.2010 | 2:35 PM ET

Trident

I get what you're saying about Diaz's winning streak, but find me a top ten welterweight or a top ten lightweight on that current list... see what I mean. I believe firmly in quality over quantity.

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Bigj383
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10.25.2010 | 3:31 PM ET

For me Nick isn't a top 5 WW his best win is either Zaromskis or Sakurai. Sakurai stopped caring about training a while back. Then Scott Smith and Frank at MW aren't much Frank's best win in years is Baroni. Scott Smith is solid but nowhere near a top win. Pretty much everyone else Nick beat were LWs including KJ noons. Nick is building quantity but his quality is lacking. Even Hardy's wins over Davis and Swick are better than anything Diaz has. Even Gono is a better win than any of Diaz'es wins.  

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Lettuce
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10.25.2010 | 3:55 PM ET

good topic

I think Jon Fitch has to be #2 because he beat everyone except GSP. He's got so many wins.

Can't put Shields in front of Koscheck, but being Strikeforce champion and taking out Dan Henderson is worth something. He beat Kampmann even with the messed up weight cut. Next fight he will be in better form and he would probably beat Condit. Condit gets the edge over Kampmann because Kampmann doesn't know how to pull the trigger and finds a way to lose. Condit pulls the trigger and finds a way to win, even though he will probably never beat GSP/Koscheck/Fitch.

Thiago Alves who knows. Looked like **** in his last fight.

Diaz at #8 because like BigJ and others, I think he is overrated.  But he definitely beats Matt Hughes. Diego Sanchez maybe beats Nick Diaz but I didn't even have Sanchez on my list until 10 minutes ago, so Sanchez will have to settle for #10 for right now.

I love welterweight!

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skelliher
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10.25.2010 | 3:57 PM ET

My thoughts exactly. This is a gross exaggeration to prove my point, but remember Jason Reinhardt? No? Well he was 18-0 heading into his UFC debut against Joe Lauzon. Now he is 20-1.

Quality trumps quantity any day of the week. It's one of the few basic laws that should be followed IMO when compiling rankings. It's also the reason Hector Lombard isn't in the Top Ten.

"When a game cannot be won, change the game."

Gregory
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10.25.2010 | 4:01 PM ET

I love hector lombard.   I don't want him to go to the UFC.  I like seeing him in ridiculous mismatches.

I'm not sure what my top 10 welterweights are going to look like when I click this button.  We need to make it so that it gives you an auto-preview of your rankings/pick on the bottom of this form, so you can see it before you start typing.  The preview button alone isn't enough. 

Thanks for using the site guys.

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Franklin880088
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10.25.2010 | 5:32 PM ET

I think it should also be known shields cut 20 pounds day before the fight to make weight.  To judge him on this one fight is a mistake.  He clearly was no 100%, and he still got the W verse arguable top 5 WW at the time.  Shield is clearly a top 5, heck he may even also be a top 5 middle weight after the destruction of Hendo he put on. If shields had not had to cut so much weight he would have dominated the entire fight like he did for haft of the first round until he gassed.

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skelliher
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10.25.2010 | 6:11 PM ET

People be hatin on Kampmann. I'm telling you, once Kos loses to GSP, they'll put him in with Kampmann and the result will surprise all of you.

"When a game cannot be won, change the game."

Gregory
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10.25.2010 | 6:19 PM ET

If GSP beats Koscheck, I wouldn't be surprised to see the UFC back away from the Jake Shields title shot, schedule GSP to fight Anderson Silva in Toronto, and have either Jon Fitch vs Jake Shields or Carlos Condit vs Jake Shields.

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skelliher
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10.25.2010 | 6:22 PM ET

As much as a grapple-fest between Fitch and Shields would be intriguing, I'd rather see Condit get another crack at him. As for GSP/Silva, hopefully they both keep their streaks alive so GSP can end "The Spider's" in style. Fertitta's comments today gave me faint hope that the fight will actually happen. Unfortunately, the universe might give Kos or Belfort the extra push they need to notch the upset, thus dashing any chance of the biggest fight in MMA history.

"When a game cannot be won, change the game."

jeremy
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10.25.2010 | 6:56 PM ET

nick diaz is not a top 10 welterweight?  seriously?  this almost deserves its own thread.  @bigj, etc., i can understand not putting him in the top 5.  there's a fair argument to be made that gsp, fitch, kos, and maybe some combination of condit, johnson, shields and/or hughes are all more deserving simply for consistently fighting top competition in the ufc, but the guy has not lost in just shy of three years and he's the strikeforce champion.  he's had a couple of gimmes in there, most notably thomas denny, but when you look back over his resume as a whole he has beaten a who's who on a consistent basis, and most of his losses were highly competitive affairs where he got edged by decision.

if you compare diaz to someone like thiago alves, purely on paper, diaz has accomplished far more in his career.  they both turned pro around the same time, and they both have 7 losses. but more of alves's losses have been via stoppage or complete beatdown. diaz has really only taken one true a$$ kicking in his entire career and that was to noons, which he avenged.  i think you get very similar results when you look at paulo thiago, kampmann, sanchez . . .  and i think nick diaz beats condit.  i think he's a better boxer.

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skelliher
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10.25.2010 | 7:23 PM ET

Skill-wise, I think Diaz could defeat several of the top ten welterweights on my list if he fought a very good figh, but I don't think his current winning streak should put him above any of the fighters on my list convincingly, especially the top 5. I can see an argument for putting him above Paulo Thiago, but even then, his lack of recent performances against top welterweights--throughout his career, really--means I'm not putting him in there until he proves it.

I do think Diaz is a talented fighter, but I think Hughes (10) would bully the **** out of him, Thiago (9) is a probable win for him, Sanchez (8) already has an unavenged win over him, Condit (7) has the power and range to beat him, Koscheck (6) would do what Hughes would do, Kampmann (5) wouldn't be put away and can handle him on the ground or the feet, although I think that's a close fight, Alves (4) could potentially be picked apart but has the power to annihilate Diaz, Shields (3) would likely do what he does to everyone else, Fitch (2) wouldn't even be a fight, and GSP goes without saying.

All in all, there are a few fighters in that list that Diaz could defeat, but they could just as easily beat him IMO. The fact remains, all of these guys have remained active against one another, while Diaz plays with puffed up lightweights, aging veterans, and irrelevant tournament winners... Oh, and Scott Smith...

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Bigj383
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10.25.2010 | 10:23 PM ET

@Jeremy For Alves beating Parisyan, Koscheck and Hughes is far better accomplishments than anything Diaz has done IMO. If you have those wins and only lose to the #1 and #2 he should be top ranked. Even looking at your rankings he has recent wins over your #4, #8 and #9 and only losses to your 1 and 2, yet he doesn't rank at all. Same goes for Anthony Johnson has no wins from your list and a loss to your #4 not to mention he has been out for a year and last I saw him he looked like a husky 200 something lbs and won't likely return to 170. 

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raray
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10.26.2010 | 6:24 AM ET

Have to agree with @Bigj383 here. Purely by the numbers, Alves belongs in the top three. His last four opponents have been in the top ten and five fights ago he beat Parysian who is top 20-30. He has lost to both St. Pierre and Fitch by decision and hasn't been finished in a fight since June, 2006.
Diaz, on the other hand, hasn't fought a top 10 welterweight ... um ... ever? He gets credit for his current streak and some obvious skills, but I see him getting smashed by most of the top WWs in the UFC.

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skelliher
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10.26.2010 | 6:44 AM ET

Nuff' said.

Believing a fighter has the potential and skill set to challenge the top ten WW is one thing, proving that he belongs there in place of these men is entirely different.

"When a game cannot be won, change the game."

jeremy
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10.26.2010 | 8:47 AM ET

i'm not sold on this yet. i agree that alvez has fought the tougher competition recently. he must be -- he is fighting the best in the world. but he got absolutely and totally outclassed in each of his last two fights. so in his last 8 rounds in the octagon he is 0-8.  i think alves deserved to get signed for those fights, but you can't get credited on rankings for the quality of your competition if you can't actually compete with your competition.

the streak against lytle-parisyan-hughes-koscheck was indeed amazing, and there's not much i have to say in response to that. it's better than any streak diaz has been on. point taken.
but then, when you go back deeper into their careers, alvez has lost 4 other fights by stoppage -- 3 by submission, and 1 by TKO. diaz has never been submitted. and his losses to diego sanchez and karo parisyan were both amazing, back-and-forth fights.

everybody always thinks that when diaz fights a great striker he's going to get smashed.  what happened against robbie lawler? he knocked him out.  what happened against gomi?  he finished gomi.  he finished Gleison Tibau, who is super tough. noons is super tough. he beat zaromskis and smith and shamrock, who are not of the same class as the list alves went 4-0 against, but each of those guys is a striking specialist and he beat them almost purely with striking.

i'm not saying diaz would go 7-0 against the seven guys i rank him above in the top 10. he can be beaten, like anybody. i'm just saying, the guy has been a great fighter his whole career and he is the strikeforce champion, there is no question he is at least a TOP TEN welterweight.

anyway . . . i think i'm from stockton in a former life.

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skelliher
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10.27.2010 | 9:14 AM ET

I get what you're saying about Alves getting dominated in his last two fights, and I also agree that there are men below him on my rankings that could defeat him. With that said, if we use your logic, what if Fitch fought GSP twice in a row...he'd have gone 0-10 in consecutive rounds. Does that mean he's not the number 2 WW in the world? Alves went 0-8 against No. 1 and No. 2 ... it wasn't impressive, but it proved nothing in terms of ranking him below No. 3 or No. 4.

I think this argument basically comes down to a fundamental difference in ranking styles. Like I said, I try to rank fighters as scientifically as possible, and, though it doesn't always work, I do rely on MMA Math to a large degree, while I think you are ranking fighters in terms of who you think is the best. I can't disprove that Diaz is the No. 3 WW in the world, but I believe I have a stronger argument for not ranking him than you do for ranking him.

Ultimately, that's why I think the Tapology rankings will be neat to look at, especially when we have thousands of users in there. There are people who rank fighters like I do, and then there are people who rank fighters according to their potential. Our consensus rankings will have a mixture of both.

Final thoughts on this debate. I'll believe Diaz can handle a top five WW when I see it, otherwise his resume has literally no evidence to support that besides his lack of total dominant losses, which is negligible when you look at his competition.

"When a game cannot be won, change the game."

jeremy
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10.27.2010 | 9:24 AM ET

Fair enough.  Even though I rank Diaz #3 on my welterweight list, I'm not arguing for others to put him that high as well.  My only point has been that he deserves to be placed in the top ten. I think a #9 or #10 ranking for him is fair and defensible. Below that is where I start to question.

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BeastMaster
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10.28.2010 | 9:07 AM ET

my top welterweights

1.  George St-Pierre2.   Josh Koscheck3.   Thiago Alves4.   Jon Fitch5.   Jake Shields6.   Chris Lytle7.   Nick Diaz8.   Matt Hughes9.   Carlos Condit10. Diego Sanchez

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