Alves vs. Story Predictions

This is the official prediction commentary thread for Alves vs. Story. Let's see what you've got.

Alves has great stand-up, but he won't be standing that much.

Story is going to ground and pound him through the mat.

If Thiago wants to win he needs to knock him out in the first, he has a horrible gas tank and Story is simply brutal with his ground skill. Relentless.

@TacomaTerror .. It looks like his cardio had really improved in the Howard fight and I wouldnt say he has a bad gas tank anyway.

BJ has been in fights when he looked in shape too, I'm just going with the track record and going to say Alves will get tired easilly due to the big cut he always makes.

I hope Rick throws some posts in here before the fight. I've only ever seen him on here once.

Yes but he has now got proper dieting and everything his cut is much easier... hes on the dolce diet so I dont think hel gas... Will be close fight tho I think

I will believe it when I see it then. And even if he does not get tired, I hope he has worked on his TDD.

Yes I suppose we all do haha.

i bet on story vs johnny hendricks and made some good $$$ so im going with story im a fan i hope he pulls it out!

@KoKid I'm really liking Rick Story in this fight and have enjoyed watching him fight...My gut is really telling me he's gonna win this and I like Alves better then most at 170

Story has a massive amount of potential but it's not his time to fight Alves. Thiago has his weight and cut under control. Story is a big dude too, but i don't think he's nearly as quick as Thiago and he's never faced someone with a Muay Thai aresenal, especially leg kicks, like Thiago brings. I think this fight will be a one sided TKO for two rounds and Alves getting a title eliminator bout with.... **** who knows...

I'm a fan of both guys, but I really love watching Story fight.  I think Story has what it takes to step up and prove that he can hang with top guys. Anything can happen in mma, but I like Story's chances.  However, Alves wouldn't surprise me if he wants to make a statement and tries to take Story's head off.  I'm looking forward to a three round war. 

Alves hooked up with Mike Dolce for his last fight, so his cut isn't a big problem anymore.  Alves also has a pretty good sprawl, so I figure he can keep it standing.  Story might smash him against the cage though.

I really like both fighters, and in the stand-up, I have to give Thiago Alves the nod, but Rick Story has figured a formula on how to win here lately. I think Rick Story observes a page out of Jon Fitch's book and takes this one by decsion.

Another fight I could change my predicition in  soon. Thiago looked damn good against John Howard in his last fight, but if Rick Story can get the fight to the ground he could ride out the decision with some GnP

Alves by TDD and technical striking.

Rick Story is underrated and he has a determination inside of him that is rivaled by few in MMA. I think he keeps it tight, and a frenetic pace.

I'm comfortable with 8/10 of my picks for this event. This is 1 of the 2 I'm not, the other being Brian Stann.

Alves stopped Hughes' and Kos' takedowns, but couldn't stop GSP's or Fitch's takedowns. The Kos one may not be the best example though because he wasn't fully committed to getting the takedown. He wanted to stand with Alves, and was badly rocked early on which may have affected the rest of the fight.

Rick Story has some good striking skills and power, and is very aggressive, but I don't think he's anywhere near Alves' level. So it really all depends on him getting the takedown and keeping him down. And I'm undecided on the issue. I could change my pick multiple times before Saturday. If I were betting I'd go with Story because of the odds.

Like with the Rampage fight, I'm going to pick a decision either way. I don't think Alves will be able to commit enough for him to have a good chance of getting the KO, due to having to defend takedowns. I wouldn't be surprised to see the KO though.

This fight and the Rampage fight have some similarities. Striker vs wrestler matchup, and also both strikers are favored a similar amount... Alves is 82% and Rampage is 81% on Tapology. I'm more confident on the Rampage pick than this pick due to Rampage's wrestling ability and TDD. I wonder how many of the people that pick Hamill are also picking Story. You'd think it'd be a higher amount than the odds of both of them winning would suggest, due to people picking because they favor wrestling in general. I'm actually one of those people. I tend to favor the wrestlers more than others do. I picked Sonnen over Anderson, Fitch over Alves in the rematch, and I'll pick Mendes over Aldo if that fight ever happens.

My head is saying Thiago, but my heart's saying Rick.  Right now, I've got Rick by decision, but I'll probably wait to see how the weigh-ins look.  Might change it.