Several months ago, few would have believed that UFC 107, featuring a main event match between UFC Lightweight Champion BJ Penn and top contender Diego Sanchez, would be the most anticipated card since UFC 101 back in August. Following Quinton “Rampage” Jackson’s withdrawal from the card after a public dispute with the UFC, few thought the event packed the year-end punch necessary to cap off 2009. Unfortunately for the UFC—and fortunately for Penn and Sanchez—the past three months have seen the worst string of major injuries, fight cancellations, and under-performing Pay Per View numbers of the past two years, leading to the emergence of tomorrow night’s main event as the most important fight for some time to come.
While my rating took a slight hit as a result of a 60% success rate for UFC 105 last month, an 80% rating with UFC 106 was enough to keep my overall success rate at 79% over the last 14 fights. Check out my official predictions for the entire main card of UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez, which kicks off tomorrow night from the FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee.
UFC Lightweight Championship
BJ Penn (14-5-1) vs. Diego Sanchez (21-2) (155lbs)
The Scenario: While UFC execs have been harping on the idea that Diego Sanchez is the most dangerous test of Penn’s lightweight career to date, and understandably so, the vast majority of pundits, fans, and fighters have been refusing to bite in the lead-up to the Hawaiian’s third title defense. Sanchez should bring what he always brings to the table on Saturday night: unchecked aggression, phenomenal conditioning, and a willingness to engage on the feet and on the mat for the entirety of the 25-minute affair.
The Prediction: Unfortunately for the challenger, the same aggression and gameness that earned him his first UFC title shot will ultimately lead to his downfall. BJ Penn is one of the top five pound for pound fighters in the world today, in any weight class. At 155lbs, however, he has looked every bit as scary as when he burst onto the scene eight years ago with consecutive first-round demolitions of Din Thomas and Caol Uno. The popular prediction heading into this fight hinges on the fact that Penn can do everything Sanchez can, but better, and come Saturday night, viewers will see just how apt a statement that was, as Penn meets fire with fire in the center of the cage, eventually sealing the deal with his trademark rear naked choke midway into the third round.
Frank Mir (12-4) vs. Cheick Kongo (14-5-1) (265lbs)
The Scenario: Perhaps the most interesting storyline heading into this heavyweight contenders match is the fact the Frank Mir has managed to earn his co-main event status with unrelenting trash talk and an uncanny ability to hype his abilities beyond what his past performances may indicate. Of course, the classic “Striker vs. Grappler” moniker has been applied over and over again while discussing this fight, but come Saturday night, things might not be that simple. Kongo may have more knockout power, but his kickboxing is hardly world-class to the trained eye, and it is in this seeming strength, rather than his deficiency on the ground, that will spell the beginning of the end for the Frenchman in this contest.
The Prediction: For all of his talk, Frank Mir is probably going to be tentative going into this one, and rightly so. What many fans may find surprising, however, is the increasing frequency with which he will be able to land effective shots to Kongo’s chin as the first round wears on. While some will undoubtedly fear for Mir’s chances on the feet, his ability to land crisp strikes will only frustrate Kongo all the more, making the clinch game an inevitable outcome. Look for Mir to give his licks, and take them, before dragging his taller foe to the mat and working for an emphatic TKO victory that will surprise everyone in attendance.
Jon Fitch (20-3, 1NC) vs. Mike Pierce (10-2) (170lbs)
The Scenario: What looks to be the biggest mismatch on paper of all 11 fights on the card, the welterweight match between former top contender Jon Fitch and wrestler Mike Pierce may turn out to be more competitive than it looks. Fitch, known for the twin set of iron chin and iron heart he possesses, is about as likely to be finished in this fight as Penn is in the main event. Pierce should make it interesting throughout the first round and for much of the second, but there is no way he can manhandle Fitch like he did to Brock Larson in his UFC debut, and that will spell the difference.
The Prediction: Fitch fans will be wringing their hands in anticipation as the suffocating clinch and top game of Pierce makes it difficult for the AKA-trained welterweight to find his range at the start of the bout. That anticipation will be short-lived, however, as Fitch weathers an early storm, accruing only minor damage, before getting the mount/TKO combo going at the end of the second round for the stoppage.
Kenny Florian (11-4) vs. Clay Guida (25-10) (155lbs)
The Scenario: Fresh off of his second loss in a UFC title match, Boston’s Kenny Florian will be looking to make a statement by finishing one of the most aggressive brawlers in the division. If he pulls it off, expect fans to jump right onto the bandwagon—and for good reason—as Guida has proven himself one of the toughest and most difficult-to-finish lightweight headaches in the world in recent years. This one is going to be as fast-paces as ever, with the winner moving right toward the top of the pack once again at 155lbs.
The Prediction: As much as Guida will be banking on his suffocating top game and overall pace to wear down the historically-slender Florian, the futility of that game plan will become apparent sooner or later, as Florian stuffs most takedown attempts before turning on the offense in the later rounds. As with all Guida fights, this one seems destined to be a nail-biter, as Florian does everything in his power to steal the decision heading into the third round. His best bet—to finish Guida—may be more likely than some are giving him credit for, making the judges an unnecessary formality in this one. Look for Florian to transition from mount to back control, sinking in the rear naked choke for the win in the third round.
Paul Buentello (27-10) vs. Stefan Struve (18-3) (265lbs)
The Scenario: The most interesting thing about this heavyweight battle is the fact that it is guaranteed a spot on the main card. Of course, this occurrence has a lot to do with the recent string of high-profile injuries that have afflicted the promotion in recent months, but the fact remains that Buentello vs. Struve will answer few questions about either fighter, nor will it have immediate ramifications for the division at large. Another striker vs. grappler battle, this contest should hit the ground whenever Struve wants it too, which could end up being too late for his own liking.
The Prediction: As much as fans will be clamoring to see Buentello get the resounding knockout in this one, the likelihood of him maintaining the speed and explosive power necessary to put someone as rangy as Struve out cold will diminish as the fight wears on. Buentello will likely land some hard shots, but they will make little difference in the long run, as the younger Struve takes advantage of his superior size and conditioning to drag this bout to the mat at the end of the first round, where he will finish his third straight fight by way of submission.
